Thursday, August 15, 2013

The Realist Report - Tom in CT: Sandy Hook

On this edition of The Realist Report, we'll be joined once again by Tom in Connecticut. Tom and I will be deconstructing the Sandy Hook "shooting" PSYOP, and elaborating on how we can all recognize and protect ourselves against media deception.

Please visit The Realist Report on TalkeShoe to download this and past episodes.

Main Discussion Points:
  • Dealing with information
  • Envelope/Letter analogy
  • Human Cognition and its exploitable limitations
  • 7 Components of Deception Magic and how they are used
  • Analysis of Competing Hypotheses as a hedge against being deceived
  • How Analysis of Competing Hypotheses can be applied to Sandy Hook
Basic model for ranking credibility of evidence:
















Basic model for conducting Analysis of Competing Hypotheses:

Step-by-Step Outline of Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

  1. Identify the possible hypotheses to be considered. Use a group of analysts with different perspectives to brainstorm the possibilities.
  2. Make a list of significant evidence and arguments for and against each hypothesis.
  3. Prepare a matrix with hypotheses across the top and evidence down the side. Analyze the "diagnosticity" of the evidence and arguments - that is, identify which items are most helpful in judging the relative likelihood of the hypotheses.
  4. Refine the matrix. Reconsider the hypotheses and delete evidence and arguments that have no diagnostic value.
  5. Draw tentative conclusions about the relative likelihood of each hypothesis. Proceed by trying to disprove the hypotheses rather than prove them.
  6. Analyze how sensitive your conclusion is to a few critical items of evidence. Consider the consequences for your analysis if that evidence were wrong, misleading, or subject to a different interpretation.
  7. Report conclusions. Discuss the relative likelihood of all the hypotheses, not just the most likely one.
  8. Identify milestones for future observation that may indicate events are taking a different course than expected.

Model for conducting Analysis of Competing Hypotheses for Sandy Hook school "shooting":

3 comments:

  1. gotta give credit where credit is due....

    Right John ....

    In an opinion piece sent to the Jerusalem Post, which will appear on Friday, Pollard criticizes the Israeli government “over the past 60 years” on issues such as evicting Jewish communities, releasing murderous terrorists and his own situation.

    "Israel is the only country in the world that ever voluntarily evicted citizens from their homeland in order to give the land to its enemies, and the only country that ever voluntarily destroyed the homes and businesses of its citizens, broke promises and shattered their lives,” Pollard told the Jerusalem Post.

    http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/170972#.Ug36FDgo7rc

    as if the "Jewish" narrative oozed from some other cesspit than the Talmud...



    Peres added that "the rabbinate must use the "Torah" [TALMUD] to make justice and aid the building of the {stool sculpture deity cult compound} "shitty little country"," and noted that he does not share the stance which sees a contradiction between Judaism and the values of democracy, since ....democracy was born in a Jewish cradle."

    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4418077,00.html

    with "Jew" worshipping certain "Rituals" are um like you know....Mandatory...

    Dachau, which was established in March 1933, was the first regular concentration camp established by the National Socialist government, according to the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum.

    Read more: about the psychopathic assholes who are "Jewish" on account of the Talmud....

    http://adask.wordpress.com/

    which technically speaking is NOT the TOE of Ra...

    http://forward.com/articles/182397/angela-merkel-will-visit-memorial-at-dachau/

    ....dig those comments...!

    great Job, John

    Davy

    ReplyDelete
  2. You and your guest seem to be praising Penn and Teller. I could not tell, but probably you are not aware that they did a TV show about 8 years ago "debunking" conspiracy theories with an emphasis on 3: JFK, Apollo and 9-11? And at the end of the show a guy came out and drilled a hole in the Holy Bible for no apparent reason. Chris Bollyn conjectured that it was to show their contempt for the truth. Here is a link http://www.erichufschmid.net/Axis_of_Perverts2.html. And see the link 'Zionists rape bible' on that page.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Richard,

      The point of discussing Penn and Teller was their use of deception. They are well studied in that area. Especially Teller.

      Nobody is endorsing Penn and Tellers politics. They are professional deceivers.

      This show was about deception and deception detection.

      Did you catch that?

      Delete

Thanks for reading! Comments are welcome but are not guaranteed to be published. Please refrain from using curse words and other derogatory language. Published comments do not always reflect the views of this blog.